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Developing a cohort projections model to estimate the population level impact of alternative risk factor profiles on dementia prevalence in Australia over the next 50 years.

Prof Laurie Brown, , Prof Kaarin Anstey
Research Centre DCRC Early Diagnosis and Prevention
Partner Institution NATSEM
Project Description

While old age is the most important risk factor for dementia, a growing body of research suggests that a number of other modifiable lifestyle and biomedical factors influence the occurrence of dementia in a population.

This project will model the impact of modifying risk factor prevalence at middle and old-ages on the projected number of people with dementia in Australia over the next 50 years.

This will be achieved by building a cohort projections model that combines information on Australia's future demography, risk factor profiles, dementia prevalence rates and relative risks of dementia associated with a range of lifestyle and biomedical factors.

Two baseline projections of dementia prevalence will be estimated and the impacts of modifying risk factor profiles in the population will be explored by comparing realistic risk reduction scenarios against the two baseline projections.

The findings of this modelling work will illustrate the possible reductions in the number of persons developing dementia in the future that could be gained from early interventions that modify individuals' risk factor profiles. The project will utilise findings from the 'Dementia Risk Factor Review' project and will contribute to capacity building through the further development of important modelling infrastructure and training of early career researchers.

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